Owners who try to time the market usually end up timing their own lives instead, and that is the right instinct. The market sets the price. Your circumstances set the moment.
The signs that usually decide it
- The house no longer fits. Children have left, a parent is moving in, the stairs have become a problem, or the commute has changed.
- A move is coming anyway. A new job, retirement or a second home that is becoming the first.
- A big repair is due. A roof or a furnace near the end of its life is a reason to decide sooner, one way or the other, rather than pay for it and then sell.
- The carrying costs have changed. Taxes, insurance and upkeep that were easy ten years ago may not be now.
- The tax calendar lines up. If you are close to having owned and lived in the house as your main home for two of the last five years, waiting until you pass that line can matter. That is the test for the federal exclusion of up to $250,000 of gain, or $500,000 for a married couple filing jointly, according to the IRS.
The four market numbers worth tracking
| Number | What it measures | What favors a seller |
|---|---|---|
| Time to contract | Days from listing to an accepted offer for homes like yours | Short and falling |
| Months of supply | How long current listings would take to sell at the recent pace | Low. Economists often treat about six months as balanced |
| Share of price cuts | The portion of listings that have lowered their price | Low and falling |
| Sale price against list price | Whether homes sell above, at or below asking | At or above asking |
Watch the trend over a few months rather than a single report, and watch your own neighborhood and price range rather than national headlines. A local agent or the public sale records can supply all four.
See what a private, off-market sale of your home would look like →
Does the season matter?
Somewhat. National studies have found that homes listed in spring and early summer tend to sell for more, and faster, than homes listed in fall and winter. Our report on selling this fall or waiting for spring looks at that research and what it means in a market with few listings.
The premium is modest next to the cost of waiting. Carrying a house you are ready to leave for another five months can cost more than the seasonal difference.
What about mortgage rates?
Rates shape what buyers can pay. When they rise, the same monthly budget buys less house, and some buyers step back. When they fall, buyers return. Rates cut both ways for owners, too, because an owner with a low-rate mortgage gives it up when they buy again. Nobody times rates reliably, so treat them as one input, not the deciding one.
Questions
Is it better to sell before or after buying my next home?
Selling first removes the risk of carrying two mortgages but may mean a temporary move. Buying first is easier on the family but harder on the budget. A rent-back after closing can split the difference.
Should I wait for prices to rise?
Only if you can afford to hold the house and the plan does not depend on a forecast. Nobody knows where prices will go next year.
Does it matter what month I close?
It can for taxes and for property tax proration. Ask a tax adviser if you are near the two-year line.
How do I find my neighborhood’s numbers?
Ask a local agent for recent sales and days on market for homes like yours, or look up recorded sales in the county or town records.
Sources
- IRS, Topic 701, sale of your home, accessed Oct. 2026
- Address District, Should I sell my Westport house this fall or wait for spring?, October 2026
