Seller’s Desk · By Address District · · 10 min read
Will Rising Insurance Costs Lower What My House Sells For? Reading the 47 Percent Premium Rise, the Seven-Year Claims File and the 15-Year Roof Rule
LendingTree found home insurance rates rose nearly 47 percent nationally from 2020 through 2025, and an NBER study found that premium increases were capitalized into home values, cutting price growth by more than $40,000 in the most exposed ZIP codes.
- Insurance
- Pricing
- Roofs
- Flood
- Florida
Table of contents
- Key findings
- How fast have premiums risen, and where?
- Does a bigger premium lower what a buyer will pay?
- What will the buyer’s insurer look at?
- What happens to a flood policy when the house sells?
- Is Florida’s market turning?
- What does a private sale change when insurance is the worry?
- Methodology and limitations
- Conclusion
- Frequently Asked Questions
- Sources
Picture a buyer who likes the house and clears the inspection, then receives an insurance quote far above what the owner pays and asks for a lower price. Steep premium increases were once a Gulf Coast story. Since 2020 they have been steepest in hail country, in Colorado, Iowa and Minnesota, and they leave sellers asking whether a cost they do not control is now part of their price.
This brief sets the latest national and state premium studies beside an NBER study of how premiums feed into home values, the claims database insurers check, a Florida law on roof age and FEMA’s rule for passing a flood policy to a buyer. It then asks what a seller can prepare, and what a private sale changes.
The limits are plain. Premium studies use different methods and do not agree on levels, the NBER findings are averages across ZIP codes, and insurance rules differ by state. Nothing here values a house, quotes a premium or predicts a price.
Key findings
- Home insurance rates rose nearly 47 percent nationwide from 2020 through 2025, and more than doubled in Colorado, according to LendingTree’s 2026 State of Home Insurance report (Yahoo Finance, September 2026).
- Using more than 74 million premiums inferred from mortgage escrow payments, economists found premium increases were capitalized into home values, reducing home price growth by more than $40,000 in the most exposed ZIP codes (NBER, November 2025).
- Average premiums rose 2.2 percent in the first half of 2026 to $3,012 a year, after a 12 percent rise in 2025, with Collier County, Florida, up 25.3 percent to $10,052 (Insurify, September 2026).
- Insurers check a claims database that shows the claims history of a house for seven years, regardless of who owned it, and an owner can get a free copy each year (Texas Department of Insurance, June 2026).
- A buyer may be able to assume the seller’s National Flood Insurance Program policy, whose rate can rise no more than 18 percent a year until it reaches the full risk rate, while a new policy starts at the full risk rate (FEMA FloodSmart, 2026).
How fast have premiums risen, and where?
Fast nearly everywhere, fastest away from the coasts. LendingTree’s report, as summarized by Yahoo Finance, found no state where rates fell in 2025, and the ten largest increases since 2020 were all in the Midwest or the West.
Rise in home insurance rates, 2020 through 2025
The climb slowed this year. Insurify’s data show premiums up 2.2 percent nationally in the first half of 2026, after 12 percent in 2025, but Minnesota rose 12.9 percent to an average of $3,987 and Louisiana 8.6 percent to $5,484. Florida remained the most expensive state in Insurify’s data at $8,486, up 2.3 percent. Cotality, the property data firm, said in late 2025 that insurance had reached 9 percent of the typical homeowner’s payment, the highest share on record, and projected another 8 percent rise in average premiums in 2026.
Source Yahoo Finance summarizing LendingTree, Sept. 8, 2026, Insurify, Sept. 15, 2026, and ResiClub reporting Cotality’s presentation, Nov. 20, 2025. Insurify’s averages assume a standard policy for a frame house with good credit and no recent claims.
Does a bigger premium lower what a buyer will pay?
The best evidence says yes, in places where premiums rose most. The economists Benjamin Keys and Philip Mulder built a dataset of more than 74 million premiums from 2014 to 2024, inferred from mortgage escrow payments. They found that premium increases are capitalized into home values, reducing home price growth by more than $40,000 in the most exposed ZIP codes, with larger effects where climate risk is rising.
The mechanism is the monthly budget. A buyer who can afford a fixed payment and is quoted a higher premium has less left for the mortgage, and so less to offer.
| Higher premium each year | Higher cost each month | Loan that monthly amount would carry at 7.28 percent |
|---|---|---|
| $1,200 | $100 | About $14,600 |
| $3,000 | $250 | About $36,500 |
Table 1. Hypothetical premium differences. Standard 30-year amortization arithmetic at Freddie Mac’s Oct. 1, 2026 average rate, not a valuation or a forecast. Buyers do not all budget this way, and many factors set a price.
The arithmetic shows why a premium gap of a few thousand dollars a year can matter to an offer. It does not show that any house will sell for less, since price also depends on supply, demand and the house itself.
Source Keys and Mulder, NBER Working Paper 32579, issued June 2024 and revised November 2025, and Freddie Mac, Oct. 1, 2026. Table 1 is arithmetic on hypothetical figures.
What will the buyer’s insurer look at?
The house’s history and its oldest parts. The Texas Department of Insurance explains that most insurers check the Comprehensive Loss Underwriting Exchange, or CLUE, which shows claims on a house for the last seven years regardless of who owned it. An insurer can charge more or decline to write a policy based on it. Owners can request a free copy each year and challenge errors, which lets a seller see what a buyer’s insurer will see.
Roof age is the other common question, and some states limit how insurers may use it. Florida law bars insurers from refusing to write or renew a homeowner’s policy solely because of the age of a roof less than 15 years old. For an older roof, an insurer must allow an inspection, at the owner’s expense, before requiring replacement, and cannot refuse coverage solely for age if the inspector finds at least five years of useful life left. Rules elsewhere differ.
Older houses raise these questions more often, and older houses are common. Across the 1,192 ZIP codes in the Older Home Index, 49.0 percent of homes sampled were built in 1980 or earlier, and the share is higher still in several of the states where premiums rose fastest.
| State | Rate rise, 2020 to 2025 | Average premium, mid 2026 | Older homes in the index sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 88.2 percent | $3,987 | 42 of 60, 70.0 percent |
| Illinois | 68.0 percent | $3,414 | 115 of 175, 65.7 percent |
| Colorado | 100.8 percent | $4,137 | 212 of 328, 64.6 percent |
| Oregon | 56.5 percent | $1,489 | 43 of 73, 58.9 percent |
| Arizona | 71.0 percent | $2,143 | 260 of 451, 57.6 percent |
| All index ZIP codes, national figures | Nearly 47 percent | $3,012 | 3,937 of 8,028, 49.0 percent |
Table 2. Rate rises from LendingTree via Yahoo Finance, average premiums from Insurify, and older homes, those built in 1980 or earlier, from the Address District Older Home Index. The three sources measure different things and are shown side by side, not combined.
A seller can prepare the answers before a buyer’s agent asks for them, including the year of the last full roof replacement with any permit, the dates of wiring, plumbing and heating updates, and receipts for storm shutters or other mitigation. Our guide to selling a house as-is covers when repairs repay their cost.
Source Texas Department of Insurance home insurance guide, updated June 1, 2026, Florida Statutes section 627.7011, 2025, LendingTree via Yahoo Finance, Insurify, and the Older Home Index. Insurance rules differ by state.
What happens to a flood policy when the house sells?
It may be able to go with the house. FEMA’s FloodSmart site says a buyer moving into a higher-risk flood zone may be able to assume the prior owner’s National Flood Insurance Program policy, which may be prepaid through its current term. If that policy is not yet at its full risk rate, its premium generally cannot rise more than 18 percent a year until it gets there. A buyer who takes out a new policy instead starts at the full risk rate, less any discounts.
For a seller whose policy is below the full risk rate, that is worth stating in writing early. Our flood zone field guide explains the maps, and the briefs on Palma Ceia and Old Naples cover the 50 percent rule in two Florida neighborhoods where flood questions shape prices.
Source FEMA, FloodSmart, What is my flood zone, accessed Oct. 5, 2026.
Is Florida’s market turning?
Prices for coverage there are easing in places. In September, Florida’s Office of Insurance Regulation approved rate cuts of 3.2 to 10.4 percent on more than 62,000 policies, and said 48 companies had filed for decreases since January 2024, Florida Realtors reported. Citizens Property Insurance, the state-backed insurer, had nearly 255,000 policies as of Sept. 18, against about 1.4 million in September 2023. The regulator’s market overview lists an average premium of $3,736, including wind coverage, among admitted insurers, a different measure from Insurify’s.
Individual counties can still move sharply. Insurify found premiums in Collier County, home to Old Naples, up 25.3 percent in the first half of 2026 to an average of $10,052, and linked part of the rise to policies leaving Citizens. Florida homeowners offered private coverage priced within 20 percent of their Citizens premium are no longer eligible for Citizens, Insurify noted.
Source Florida Realtors, Sept. 24, 2026, citing the Office of Insurance Regulation and Citizens, and Insurify, Sept. 15, 2026.
What does a private sale change when insurance is the worry?
It takes the repair list out of the sale. A sale to Address District involves no listing, no showings or open houses, and no repairs, staging or deep cleaning, so an owner is not asked to replace a roof or update wiring first. A member of our team reviews the house and may ask to see it, the offer comes in writing with no obligation, there is no commission, the seller is told in writing who the buyer is, and the owner chooses the closing date, weeks or months away.
There is a trade-off. A listing can draw competing bids, and a buyer who can insure the house at a reasonable price may pay more for it than a single private offer. The private route brings one written offer, no preparation and a date the owner sets.
Source Address District purchase terms.
Methodology and limitations
Premium trends come from three private sources with different methods. LendingTree’s 2020 to 2025 changes are taken from Yahoo Finance’s summary of its report. Insurify’s averages are modeled quotes for a standard policy and differ from averages reported by state regulators, as Florida’s figures show. The capitalization finding comes from an NBER working paper by Keys and Mulder, revised November 2025, and describes averages across ZIP codes, not individual sales. Claims database and roof rules are drawn from the Texas Department of Insurance and the Florida Statutes, and other states differ. Flood policy rules come from FEMA’s FloodSmart site. Older home shares are from the Older Home Index sample. Table 1 is arithmetic on hypothetical figures.
Conclusion
The sources support a few conclusions. Insurance has become a much larger part of what it costs to own a home since 2020, most of all in Colorado, Iowa and Minnesota. Research on tens of millions of premiums finds those increases show up in home values where they are steepest. And a buyer’s insurer will look at a house’s claims and its oldest systems, things a seller can check before a buyer does, while a discounted flood policy may pass to the buyer.
They do not say what any house is worth. Where a buyer can insure the house at a fair price, a listing may bring competing bids. Where insurance is the obstacle, a private sale brings a written offer with no repairs and a closing date the owner chooses.
Frequently Asked Questions
Can I find out what a buyer will pay to insure my house?
Not exactly, since quotes depend on the buyer as well as the house. Asking two or three insurance agents for a quote on the house, and ordering your own claims report, shows what a buyer’s insurer is likely to see.
Do I have to tell a buyer about past insurance claims?
Disclosure rules differ by state. Many state forms ask about past damage and repairs, and an insurer will see the claims history regardless. Ask your attorney or agent what your state requires.
Should I replace an old roof before selling?
Only if the numbers work. A new roof can ease insurance, but the cost may not come back in the price. In Florida, a roof under 15 years old cannot be the sole reason for a refusal.
Can my flood insurance transfer to the buyer?
A National Flood Insurance Program policy may be assumable by the buyer, which can preserve a lower rate on its path to the full risk rate. Private flood policies have their own terms.
Sources
- Yahoo Finance, Sept. 8, 2026. Home insurance rates are up 47% nationwide, citing LendingTree’s 2026 State of Home Insurance report. https://finance.yahoo.com/personal-finance/insurance/article/home-insurance-rates-are-up-47-nationwide-see-the-states-where-rates-rose-the-most-205039646.html
- Insurify, Sept. 15, 2026. Home insurance rates continued rising in the first half of 2026. https://insurify.com/homeowners-insurance/insights/rates-increase-first-half-2026/
- National Bureau of Economic Research, revised November 2025. Keys and Mulder, Property Insurance and Disaster Risk, New Evidence from Mortgage Escrow Data, Working Paper 32579. https://www.nber.org/papers/w32579
- ResiClub, Nov. 20, 2025. Housing market is still passing through a home insurance shock, Cotality’s chief data officer says. https://www.resiclubanalytics.com/p/housing-market-still-passing-through-a-home-insurance-shock-cotality-s-chief-data-officer-says
- Texas Department of Insurance, updated June 1, 2026. Home insurance guide. https://www.tdi.texas.gov/pubs/consumer/cb025.html
- The Florida Legislature, 2025. Florida Statutes, section 627.7011. https://www.flsenate.gov/Laws/Statutes/2025/627.7011
- FEMA FloodSmart, accessed Oct. 5, 2026. What is my flood zone. https://www.floodsmart.gov/flood-zones-and-maps/what-is-my-flood-zone
- Florida Realtors, Sept. 24, 2026. Florida approves more home insurance rate cuts. https://www.floridarealtors.org/news-media/news-articles/2026/09/florida-approves-more-home-insurance-rate-cuts
- Freddie Mac, Oct. 1, 2026. Primary Mortgage Market Survey. https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
- Address District, October 2026. Older Home Index. /older-home-index.html
Figures retrieved October 5, 2026. This brief is general information, not legal, tax or financial advice. Photographs are illustrative.
