Seller’s Desk · By Address District · · 10 min read
Is an Older Palma Ceia Home Priced by the Market or the Flood Map? Weighing the $1.33 Million Median and the 50 Percent Rule
Older homes are 41 of 53 sampled in Palma Ceia and Sunset Park and average 26.3 percent of the new construction price. Redfin puts the 33629 median sale at $1,334,423, up 0.7 percent, and, citing First Street, counts 89 percent of properties at risk of severe flooding over 30 years.
- Palma Ceia
- South Tampa
- Older homes
- Flood rules
- Homestead portability
Table of contents
- Key findings
- How old are the homes, and what does age do to the price?
- What do the 2026 reports say homes sell for?
- Who lives in 33629, and what does the Census count?
- What do the flood map and the 50 percent rule change?
- What else should an owner check before selling?
- What does a private sale change for a Palma Ceia owner?
- Methodology and limitations
- Conclusion
- Frequently Asked Questions
- Sources
An owner in Palma Ceia or Sunset Park who checks the portals this fall sees a flat market. Redfin puts the 33629 median sale price at $1,334,423 for the three months ending August 2026, up 0.7 percent, and Zillow’s typical value is unchanged on the year. The same Redfin page, citing First Street, says 89 percent of properties face severe flood risk over 30 years. So the answer is both. The market sets the range, and the flood map shapes what a buyer can do with an older building.
This brief sets those figures beside Address District’s Older Home Index, the Census Bureau’s 2020-2024 profile, five 2026 market reports, and Tampa and Florida rules on flooding, preservation and homestead taxes. It then asks what a private direct sale changes.
The limits are stated up front. The reports use different areas and windows, the index sample is 53 homes, and the census profile read here omits year built and tenure. Nothing below estimates what any home would sell for.
Key findings
- Palma Ceia and Sunset Park ranks first of 1,192 ZIP codes nationally for older homes, with 41 of 53 sampled, and older homes average 26.3 percent of the new construction price (Older Home Index, 2026).
- Over the three months ending August 2026, the 33629 median sale price was $1,334,423, up 0.7 percent, with a median of 42 days on market (Redfin, August 2026).
- Zillow counted 161 homes for sale at the end of August 2026, and 80.8 percent of July sales closed under list (Zillow, August 2026).
- Across seven South Tampa ZIP codes, 146 properties sold from September 4 to October 4, 2026, at an average of $1.22 million and 96 percent of asking (Coastal Properties Group, October 2026).
- The Census Bureau counts 11,330 housing units in 33629 and a median owner value of $851,400, against $359,000 for Florida (Census Reporter, 2020-2024).
- Tampa measures flood-zone repairs against 50 percent of the structure’s depreciated value as the county property appraiser lists it (City of Tampa, July 2026).
How old are the homes, and what does age do to the price?
No ZIP code in the index has more older homes, those built 1980 or earlier, than Palma Ceia and Sunset Park, with 41 of 53 sampled, or 77.4 percent. The share is 52.6 percent across Florida and 49.0 percent across the 1,192 index neighborhoods, and the neighborhood is first of 202 in the Florida ranking.
The average older home here is priced at 26.3 percent of the average new one, so new construction averages about 3.8 times as much, which is 100 divided by 26.3. That is arithmetic on two averages, not a value for any house. The ratio sits 3.55 points above the Florida median of 22.75 percent, and neighbors run from 21.1 to 30.3 percent on small samples. The index does not split land from building, and the smallest 33629 lot sampled is 5,904 square feet.
| ZIP code | Distance | Older homes | Older share | Older to new price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33629 Palma Ceia and Sunset Park | 41 of 53 | 77.4 percent | 26.3 percent | |
| 33609 Beach Park and Palma Ceia | 1.5 miles | 6 of 9 | 66.7 percent | 21.1 percent |
| 33611 South Tampa and Bayshore | 2.0 miles | 7 of 7 | 100 percent | 25.6 percent |
| 33606 Hyde Park and Davis Islands | 3.5 miles | 11 of 16 | 68.8 percent | 30.3 percent |
| Florida | 52.6 percent | 22.75 percent, median | ||
| All ZIP codes | 49.0 percent | 23.1 percent, median |
Table 1. Older homes and their average price as a share of new construction, 33629 and three neighbors. Source, Address District Older Home Index.
Source Address District Older Home Index, 2026. Ratios compare sample averages, and nearby samples are small.
What do the 2026 reports say homes sell for?
Five reports give six price measures, shown in Figure 1. Redfin’s three-month median is $1,334,423, up 0.7 percent, and Zillow’s July median sale was $1,056,667. Smith & Associates, a Tampa brokerage, reported in March a median of $1,215,000, up 14.5 percent year over year, and Momentum Realty’s 12-month median is $1,361,250, up 25.8 percent. The portals see a flat year and the brokerages see double-digit gains, over different windows. The top figure is $509,850, about 60 percent, above the Census owner value, arithmetic across measures never meant to match.
Six price measures for ZIP code 33629
Most homes sell below asking. Zillow counted 80.8 percent of July sales under list and 9.9 percent over, leaving 9.3 percent at list, and Redfin counts price drops on 33.9 percent of homes. At Redfin’s 96.4 percent sale-to-list ratio, a hypothetical $1,200,000 list price becomes a $1,156,800 sale, $43,200 below asking. That is arithmetic, not a forecast.
The clock runs about five to nine weeks. Redfin’s median is 42 days on market and Zillow’s is 38 days to pending. Coastal Properties Group, covering seven South Tampa ZIP codes with condominiums included, averaged 61.32 days for homes sold in the month to October 4.
Source Redfin and Zillow, data through August 2026. Smith & Associates, March 17, 2026. Momentum Realty, data as of October 4, 2026. Coastal Properties Group, Stellar MLS data. Not independently verified, and areas and windows differ.
Who lives in 33629, and what does the Census count?
The 2020-2024 American Community Survey counts 27,710 residents, 11,330 housing units and 10,746 households in ZIP code tabulation area 33629. A household fills one occupied unit, so about 584 units, or 5.2 percent, had none, a rough figure given margins of error above 500 on each count.
Median household income is $164,355 and median owner value $851,400, both more than double Florida’s, and value is 5.2 times income here against 4.8 statewide. Redfin’s sale median is about 57 percent above the Census value, an owner estimate spread over 2020 to 2024.
| Indicator | 33629 | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Population | 27,710 | 4.8 square miles |
| Housing units | 11,330 | Margin of error 517 |
| Households | 10,746 | Margin of error 548 |
| Units without a household | About 584 | Calculated, 5.2 percent |
| Median household income | $164,355 | Florida $74,568 |
| Median owner-occupied value | $851,400 | Florida $359,000 |
Table 2. Household and housing indicators, ZIP code tabulation area 33629. Source, U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2020-2024 five-year estimates, via Census Reporter.
Source U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2020-2024, via Census Reporter, read October 5, 2026.
What do the flood map and the 50 percent rule change?
Redfin, citing First Street, counts 6,197 properties in 33629, or 89 percent, likely to be severely affected by flooding over 30 years, and 86 percent in the smaller Palma Ceia neighborhood. Those are model estimates, not FEMA zones, which the city’s flood map service shows by parcel.
Tampa measures repairs and improvements in zones AE, Coastal A and VE against 50 percent of the structure’s depreciated value before damage, as the county property appraiser lists it. Past that line, Bay News 9 explained in October 2024, an owner generally must elevate the house or rebuild to current flood rules. Only the building counts, so a hypothetical older house the appraiser lists at $240,000 reaches the line at $120,000 of work, whatever the lot is worth. In December 2024, Fox 13 reported, the city began mailing about 1,900 substantial damage letters.
Citizens Property Insurance requires flood coverage alongside wind coverage in the special flood hazard area, and elsewhere in stages, for dwellings valued at $400,000 or more since January 1, 2026 and for all policies from January 1, 2027. Smith & Associates put property insurance premiums, not flood coverage alone, for older South Tampa bungalows at $4,000 to $8,000 a year, or $333 to $667 a month.
Since October 1, 2025, a form in section 689.302 of the Florida Statutes asks the seller, at or before the contract, about known flood damage, flood insurance claims and flood assistance. Rules differ by state, and this is not legal advice.
Source Redfin with First Street data. City of Tampa, July 22, 2026. Bay News 9, October 18, 2024. Fox 13, December 9, 2024. Citizens Property Insurance. Smith & Associates. Florida Realtors, September 30, 2025.
What else should an owner check before selling?
Preservation review is less likely to be the hurdle here than in Hyde Park. Tampa has four local historic districts, Hyde Park, Seminole Heights, Tampa Heights and Ybor City, plus 64 local landmarks, and its district map page names neither Palma Ceia nor Sunset Park. An owner should still confirm a house is not a landmark, since the city reviews exterior work on designated property through a Certificate of Appropriateness.
Taxes reset at a sale. Under section 193.155 of the Florida Statutes, a homestead’s assessed value rises at most 3 percent a year or the change in the Consumer Price Index, if lower, and returns to just value on the January 1 after a change of ownership. A seller who sets up a new Florida homestead within three tax years can carry the gap between just and assessed value, up to $500,000. A hypothetical home at $1,300,000 just value and $720,000 assessed has a $580,000 gap, so $500,000 moves, and a new $1,500,000 homestead would start at $1,000,000 assessed. That is arithmetic on the formula for moving up, not tax advice.
Source City of Tampa historic preservation pages, updated 2026. Florida Statutes section 193.155. Rules differ by state.
What does a private sale change for a Palma Ceia owner?
A sale directly to a buyer who purchases homes off the market drops the public steps. There is no listing, there are no showings or open houses, and there are no repairs, staging or deep cleaning, so no renovation starts near the 50 percent line just to sell. A person on the Address District team reviews the house and may ask to see it, the offer comes in writing with no obligation, and the seller is told in writing who the buyer is.
The owner picks the closing date, weeks or months out. The flood disclosure still applies, because it attaches to the contract. There is no commission. Each percentage point of one is $13,344 at Redfin’s median and $10,567 at Zillow’s July median, so an owner can compare offers on net proceeds.
The trade-off is real. A public listing can draw competing bids, and Redfin counts 12.8 percent of 33629 homes selling above list. A private sale brings one offer, and the choice is the owner’s.
Source Calculation from the Redfin and Zillow medians. No commission rate or closing cost is assumed.
Methodology and limitations
Older home counts, shares, the price ratio and the minimum lot come from the Address District Older Home Index, on 53 homes in 33629 and 7 to 16 in each neighbor. Census figures are 2020-2024 five-year estimates read from Census Reporter. They carry margins of error, and year-built and tenure tables could not be read, so they are left out.
Market figures come from two portals and three brokerages with different areas and windows, none independently verified. The brief makes no forecast and does not estimate what any home would sell for.
Conclusion
For a Palma Ceia owner, the record supports a short list. Older homes are about three in four of the sampled stock and average about a quarter of the new price. The portals show a flat year and two brokerages show gains, most homes sell below asking within five to nine weeks, and nearly nine in ten properties carry severe flood risk in First Street’s model.
It does not price any one house or forecast the market. Listing or selling privately comes down to how an owner weighs competing bids against privacy, a chosen closing date, no repairs and no commission.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the 26.3 percent ratio value my house?
No. It compares average prices of sampled older and new homes across different lots.
Why do the medians differ so much?
They use different windows and methods, from one month to a five-year survey. Read them as a range.
Is Palma Ceia a local historic district?
Not on the city’s district map, which names four others. A house can still be an individual landmark.
Do I disclose past flooding if I sell privately?
Section 689.302 puts the form on the seller at or before the contract, and a private sale is still a sale. This is not legal advice.
Will a private sale get more than a listing?
Not necessarily. A listing can draw competing bids. A private sale trades that for no showings, no repairs, no commission and a chosen date.
Sources
- Address District, 2026. Older Home Index. /older-home-index.html
- Redfin, data through August 2026. 33629 Housing Market, House Prices and Trends. https://www.redfin.com/zipcode/33629/housing-market
- Redfin, data through August 2026. Palma Ceia, Tampa Housing Market. https://www.redfin.com/neighborhood/74172/FL/Tampa/Palma-Ceia/housing-market
- Zillow, data through August 31, 2026. 33629 Housing Market, 2026 Home Prices and Trends. https://www.zillow.com/home-values/72730/tampa-fl-33629/
- Steve Armstrong, Smith & Associates Real Estate, March 17, 2026. South Tampa Real Estate Update for 2026. https://www.smithandassociates.com/blog/south-tampa-real-estate-update-for-2026.html
- Momentum Realty, data as of October 4, 2026. Tampa, FL (33629) Housing Market Scorecard 2026. https://movewithmomentum.com/data/fl/33629-housing-scorecard
- Coastal Properties Group, September 4 to October 4, 2026. South Tampa Housing Market Data. https://www.coastalpgi.com/market-insights/south-tampa
- Census Reporter, accessed October 5, 2026. 33629 profile, ACS 2024 five-year estimates (2020-2024). https://censusreporter.org/profiles/86000US33629-33629-tampa/
- City of Tampa, updated July 22, 2026. Hurricane Information. https://www.tampa.gov/emergency-management/hurricane-information
- Bay News 9, Saundra Weathers, October 18, 2024. Homeowners in flood-prone areas reminded of FEMA’s 50% rule. https://baynews9.com/fl/tampa/news/2024/10/18/homeowners-in-flood-prone-areas-reminded-of-fema-s-50--rule
- Fox 13, Ariel Plasencia, December 9, 2024. City of Tampa begins mailing out substantial damage letters to certain homeowners in flood hazard areas. https://www.fox13news.com/news/tampa-begins-mailing-hurricane-damage-letters-residents
- Citizens Property Insurance Corporation, accessed October 5, 2026. Flood. https://www.citizensfla.com/flood
- The Florida Senate, 2025. Florida Statutes 2025, section 689.302, Disclosure of flood risks to prospective purchaser. https://www.flsenate.gov/Laws/Statutes/2025/689.302
- Florida Realtors, Richard Swank, September 30, 2025. Florida Expands Flood Disclosures. https://www.floridarealtors.org/news-media/news-articles/2025/09/florida-expands-flood-disclosures
- The Florida Senate, 2025. Florida Statutes 2025, section 193.155, Homestead assessments. https://flsenate.gov/Laws/Statutes/2025/193.155
- City of Tampa, updated September 1, 2026. Architectural Review and Historic Preservation. https://www.tampa.gov/historic-preservation
- City of Tampa, updated June 23, 2026. Historic District Maps. https://www.tampa.gov/historic-preservation/info/district-maps
Figures retrieved October 5, 2026. This brief is general information, not legal, tax or financial advice. Photographs are illustrative.
