Home prices rose 1.9 percent in the year to July, according to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index released Sept. 29. That was up from 1.6 percent in June and the fourth straight month in which the annual gain widened, after it bottomed at 0.8 percent in February and March.
The 20-city composite rose 2.5 percent over the year and the 10-city composite 3.4 percent. After seasonal adjustment, the national index rose 0.3 percent from June.
Inflation outran all of it. “While home prices continued to decline in real terms in July 2026, marking the 14th consecutive month of real declines, slightly lower inflation and stronger nominal home price appreciation helped narrow the gap,” said Rebecca Kaufman, associate director of commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. Consumer prices rose 3.4 percent over the same 12 months, she said.
National home price index, change from a year earlier
East up, West down
The spread between metros was close to nine percentage points. Chicago led for a fifth straight month, followed by New York and Cleveland. Seattle fell furthest for a second month, followed by Las Vegas and Denver. “The years-long East-West divide persists,” Kaufman said.
| Metro | Change from a year earlier |
|---|---|
| Chicago | +6.9% |
| New York | +5.8% |
| Cleveland | +4.2% |
| Miami | +3.5% |
| San Francisco | +3.5% |
| Boston | +2.7% |
| Washington | +2.2% |
| Minneapolis | +1.7% |
| San Diego | +1.6% |
| Los Angeles | +1.2% |
| Atlanta | +0.3% |
| Charlotte | +0.3% |
| Phoenix | +0.05% |
| Dallas | -0.4% |
| Portland | -0.6% |
| Tampa | -0.7% |
| Denver | -1.1% |
| Las Vegas | -1.3% |
| Seattle | -1.6% |
S&P Cotality Case-Shiller metro indices, July 2026, not seasonally adjusted. Detroit is left out because recording delays in Wayne County prevented a valid July reading, according to S&P. Source, S&P Dow Jones Indices, Sept. 29, 2026.
The metro indices measure whole metropolitan areas, not neighborhoods. Several neighborhoods in the Address District Older Home Index sit inside these metros, among them Wilmette outside Chicago, Scarsdale outside New York, Bellevue outside Seattle, University and Platt Park in Denver and Palma Ceia in Tampa. A metro figure sets the backdrop for those neighborhoods but does not measure them.
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Other measures agree on a slow climb
The Federal Housing Finance Agency’s index of homes with mortgages backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac rose 0.3 percent in July after seasonal adjustment and 2.6 percent over the year, according to FHFA data published Sept. 29. Its nine census divisions ranged from a 0.6 percent annual gain in the Mountain division to 6.3 percent in the Middle Atlantic, Seeking Alpha reported.
NAR’s median sale price for August, $429,100, was 1.6 percent above a year earlier. Asking prices tell a softer story. Realtor.com’s median list price in September was $419,250, down 1.4 percent from a year earlier, an 11th straight monthly decline, and the median list price per square foot was down 1.7 percent.
| Measure | Latest period | Change from a year earlier |
|---|---|---|
| Case-Shiller national index | July | +1.9% |
| Case-Shiller 20-city composite | July | +2.5% |
| FHFA house price index | July | +2.6% |
| NAR median existing-home price | August | +1.6% |
| Realtor.com median list price | September | -1.4% |
| Consumer prices, as cited by S&P | July | +3.4% |
The indices follow repeat sales of the same houses, so a shift toward cheaper or smaller homes does not move them. The medians do move with the mix of homes that sell or list, and Realtor.com noted that a larger share of smaller homes is for sale now than a year ago.
What the July number cannot show
Price indices look backward. Case-Shiller figures arrive two months after the fact and rest on closings, which follow contracts by a month or two, so the July index largely reflects deals struck in late spring. Mortgage rates have risen since. Freddie Mac’s 30-year average was 6.43 percent in the first week of July and 7.28 percent in the week of Oct. 1.
Adjusted for consumer prices, the national index is 3.8 percent below its 2022 peak, Calculated Risk estimated on Oct. 5. In dollars, it is 9.3 percent above its June 2022 peak, S&P said.
For an owner, the national gain is a weak guide to a single house. In metros where the index is falling, recent sales of comparable homes nearby say more than any national figure, and our brief on timing a sale covers which local numbers to watch. Owners curious how older homes in their own neighborhood compare can look them up in the Older Home Index.
Sources
- S&P Dow Jones Indices via PR Newswire, S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index Reports Annual Gain in July 2026, Sept. 29, 2026
- Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, series CSUSHPINSA, retrieved Oct. 5, 2026
- Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FHFA purchase-only house price index, series HPIPONM226S, retrieved Oct. 5, 2026
- Seeking Alpha via TradingView, FHFA house price index rises more than expected in July, Sept. 29, 2026
- National Association of Realtors, NAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 2.0% Decrease in August, Sept. 10, 2026
- Realtor.com, September 2026 Monthly Housing Trends, Sept. 30, 2026
- Calculated Risk, Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.8% Below 2022 Peak, Oct. 5, 2026
- Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey, Oct. 1, 2026
- Address District, Older Home Index, October 2026
